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List of location details from She-Ra and the Princesses of Power (2018)

—— There be spoilers ahead. ——
(Last updated Monday 16 Nov 2020)
All external links lead to Imgur.com unless otherwise noted.
———
I've been scribbling down any facts about the world's layout while re-watching the show, and also I'm trying to note any time we see a map in the world. These should help anyone looking to make their own world map.
Ok so one thing's certain from doing this research: The creators of the show don't seem to have that Tolkien-esque mindset of creating a highly detailed canon. The shape of the world is up in the creative air. Never are maps labeled, rarely is the name of an Etherian race mentioned, and the laws of magic are not obvious.
Without more officially canon material, it is perhaps impossible to draw up a legitimate world map for the show—Any map would be regarded as a fan creation. Every now and then we get a map of some region or another, usually a 3D projection on Castle Bright Moon's command table. Whenever we see a projected globe of Etheria, it shows the same coastline over and over. Regarding the map from the 80s, the fact that the new canon places the Valley of the Lost within the Crimson Waste invalidates the old map, and the extent of their changes is unknown.
What follows are details mostly from the official canon. Other sources are occasionally mentioned.
Maps (Imgur album):
Facts about misc places:
  • Alwyn is a farming outpost, the Rebellion's breadbasket, "the Rebellion's biggest supplier of, well, supplies. It's basically one big orchard", 5:55). The Horde wasn't reported in the area when contact was lost. (S2:E3 "Signals")
  • Beast Island is not of significant size like on the 80's map. (S4:E11)
  • The City of Candila is in a mountain somewhere east of Thaymor, apparently on the far west end of the continent. (Legend of the Fire Princess)
  • Elberon is "all the way out there" and "too remote to ever get attacked." (S1:E1 "The Sword Part 1", 12:54)
  • The Horde built a fortress near Madame Razz's hovel. (S1:E3 "Razz")
  • The Horde built a fortress to guard a significant pass, the only way in & out of some region. The Alliance deemed it crucial to take this pass back. (S2:E4 "Roll With It", 2:14)
  • The Galebreath Gauntlet is 50 klicks (but Sea Hawk ran it in 20). (S1:E5 "The Sea Gate", 3:40)
  • Mystacor is near cliffs that are stark-white and higher than the clouds (or we see a foggy marine layer below). (S1:E7 "In the Shadows of Mystacor")
  • Mystacor itself is made out of a more limestone-looking rock. (S1:E7 "In the Shadows of Mystacor")
  • (Mystacor floats. Perhaps it moves around, if one prefers to imagine it in other places.)
  • In season 5, the Galactic Horde built a large planetary access structure in the Whispering Woods. (S5:E11 "Failsafe", 9:55. S5:E12 "The Heart Part 1", 8:11)
  • Plumeria is located near the front lines. Their supply line (possibly from Alwyn) was cut off by the Horde. (S1:E4 "Flowers for She-Ra", 4:30)
  • Snows is the largest kingdom outside of Bright Moon. (S1:E8 "Princess Prom")
  • There's a place called the Straits of Serpentine that's barely navigable by ship. (S1:E5 "The Sea Gate", 3:45)
  • Most of the action takes place in some neck of the Whispering Woods. The woods are scattered with occasional domes and tower-like buttes, and in some unique places purple crystalline outcroppings.
  • Each of the Whispering Woods, the Fright Zone, the Crimson Waste, the Dryl mountain range, the Northern Reach, and Salineas features distinct geological differences.
Kingdom of Bright Moon (album to come):
  • The Whispering Woods is the only obstacle between the Fright Zone and Bright Moon (S1:E13).
  • The City of Bright Moon is immediately surrounded by mountains. They appear tall near the city but shorter further out. There are characterised by their narrow tower-like shape and lilac colour, with occasional floating platforms and small shelves protruding from some cliffs (S1:E13).
  • The mountainous region surrounding the city resembles karst landscape, volcanic plugs, or even the Meteora (Wikipedia).
  • Castle Bright Moon is open on both ends. On its back side, it opens onto clear skies, where the throne floats.
  • The shorter building immediately to the castle's own left is apparently where the war room and much of the royal living space is.
  • There is a shallow waterway downhill of the city.
  • There is a massive waterfall behind Castle Bright Moon, apparently flowing from the mountain's peak.
  • To the castle's own right:
  • Mermista arrives riding a tsunami from this direction. If she came from the ocean, the logical conclusion is there is ocean that way (S1:E13).
  • At the foot of the cliffs opposite the city, there's a number of natural arches, possibly indicative of wave action there.
  • The waterway widens into a large body of water (S1:E13, when Swiftwind gets Glimmer from the staircase).
  • To the castle's own left:
  • The banks of the waterway are more gentle and lead into the Whispering Woods. The Horde attacked from this direction. (S1:E13)
  • Everything of interest seems to arrive from the far banks, including the party returning from Thaymor (S1:E3) and Perfuma's reinforcements (S1:E13).
  • S1:E13 "The Battle of Bright Moon" – Analyze this episode if you want to get a detailed idea of area surrounding the waterway.
  • The port of Seaworthy is built into waterside cliffs. Its architecture resembles that of the City of Bright Moon (S1:E5 "The Sea Gate", 2:20).
Kingdom of Salineas:
  • Whoever controls Salineas controls the seas.
  • S1:E5 "The Sea Gate" – "Anyone approaching Bright Moon by sea has to pass through the Salineas Sea Gate."
  • S1:E5 "The Sea Gate" – The Sea Gate blocks the approach to Seaworthy too. (In other words, Bright Moon & Seaworthy are on the same side of the Gate.)
  • S1:E5 "The Sea Gate" – Salineas is shown clockwise along the coast from Bright Moon.
  • S1:E5 "The Sea Gate" – Going to Salineas, it's preferable for the party take a boat from Seaworthy, instead of going on foot.
  • S1:E5 "The Sea Gate" – The journey from Seaworthy to Salineas is treacherous, according to both Sea Hawk and Queen Angella.
  • S4:E7 "Mer-Mysteries" – Hordak personally destroys the Salineas Sea Gate...
  • S4:E8 "Boys' Night Out" – This gives Hordak access to Sea Elf Village;
  • S4:E8 "Boys' Night Out" – Then Swift Wind reports the Southern Coast is "on lots of fire."
  • S4:E8 "Boys' Night Out" – Adora reports that the Whispering Woods is being secured by Perfuma. (Logical conclusion is her homeland is less vulnerable to a coastal siege.)
  • S4:E8 "Boys' Night Out" – Adora reports that the Kingdom of Snows has not been breached. (Vaguely suggests they're under attack too, but it's also plausible they're entirely left out.)
  • S4:E8 "Boys' Night Out" – Sometime after the fall of Salineas, Seaworthy was still not involved in Hordak's siege.
Kingdom of Dryl <3:
  • S1:E6 "System Failure" – The Crypto Castle is on a tall purple-gray mountain overlooking a broad range of more purple-gray mountains.
  • Legend of the Fire Princess: Dryl is under Horde occupation at the time of the comic. The map delineates Horde territory, and note that it depicts a cut-out "island" east of the Fright Zone, not shown on the 80's map. Take from that what you will.
  • S2:E2 "Ties That Bind" (10:30) – Within teleport + walking distance from the Crypto Castle is a cliff overlooking the Whispering Woods. Somewhere below this is a raging river with a waterfall.
  • S2:E2 "Ties That Bind" (12:48) – Scorpia's tracker pad shows Catra's location sometime after the waterfall. Wherever she is, the apparent drainage pattern vaguely resembels that of chanelled scablands.
  • S2:E2 "Ties That Bind" (13:55, 14:00) – Along the path between Dryl & Bright Moon are rolling foothills of shrublands or forests, pink in the sunset, which lead into the Whispering Woods.
The Fright Zone (landscapes & buildings):
  • S1:E1 "The Sword Part 1" (9:35) – Adora & Catra speed through a desert characterised by buttes & hoodoos before reaching the Whispering Woods.
  • S2:E3 "Signals" – Shadow Weaver & her notes mention the Armory (where weapons & armour is made) and the Foundry (where a necessary resource is made).
  • S3:E2 "Huntara" (13:50) – In the depiction of Horak's origin, the crash site was once a body of water surrounded by tall purplish outcroppings. There are green hills in the foreground scattered with white rocks. (This scene could be Entrapta's imagination, if one prefers to imagine pre-Hordak Fright Zone differently.)
  • S4:E6 "Princess Scorpia" – Rather than on the far fringes, Horror Hall is within the mechanically developed part of the Fright Zone, apparently near the characteristic ship engine that towers over it. (The shot includes possibly implied distance, if one prefers to imagine it further away.)
  • S4:E13 "Destiny Part 2" (18:05) – The Black Garnet Chamber has a balcony to its exterior. The room is in a hexagonal tower apparently not of Hordak's construction.
  • S5:E10 "Return to the Fight Zone" – Adora & Catra race to "the Forge" (the Foundry?). It is the place where Hordak's rage at Catra culminated.
  • Characters flee between Hordak's throne room, Hordak's Sanctum, the Black Garnet chamber, the Forge, and the panopticon-style prison from scene to scene; a mere suggestion of proximity.
  • S5:E2 "Launch" – Although many spires land across Etheria, one in particular grows in importance, and it starts to earn the moniker the Spire. It is near the edge of the Fright Zone desert, next to the Whispering Woods. Entrapta identifies it as being the one Horde Prime transmitted his grand message from.
The Crimson Waste:
  • S3:E2 "Huntara" – Traveling from Bright Moon, the party enters the desert from its north and heads south.
  • S3:E3 "Once Upon a Time in the Waste" – At the centre of the Crimson Waste is the crash site of a First Ones ship.
  • S4:E2 "The Valley of the Lost" – The Valley of the Lost is a city within the Crimson Waste.
She-Ra, First Ones, & Madame Razz:
  • Adora's portal was surrounded by towering purple crystals in a rolling green prairie. This is where Hordak found her. (S5:E13 "The Heart Part 2", 20:10)
  • Mystacor was a First Ones outpost called Arxia. (S5:E10 "Return to the Fright Zone", 17:20)
  • Madame Razz's hovel is near the Crystal Castle (or the Beacon). The distance is less than one conversation's worth. (S1:E3 "Razz", 10:15)
  • Razz's hovel is near the Mara statue (where Mara parked her ship). The distance is less than a day's walk. (S4:E9 "Hero", 3:50)
  • Razz's hovel is within limping distance of the Sword's resting place. (S4:E9 "Hero", 15:55)
  • (Razz pops back & forth through time. Perhaps she & Adora travel around space in the same way, if one prefers to imagine these locations as far away.)
  • Razz isn't under any princess's protection. A logical conclusion from "Once the princesses would have protected us, but these days they—they stay in their castles protecting only their own land." (S1:E3 "Razz", 14:50)
  • Alwyn was a First Ones transmitter. (S2:E3 "Signals")
  • The Watchtower appears to be around 30°N latitude. (S2:E2 "Ties That Bind", 4:30)
  • The Watchtower is in a field of golden grass. It is initially ruined but repaired by Adora, and the prairie turns green after its restoration. A mountain range is visible in the distance. (S2:E2 "Ties That Bind"; 7:20, 10:00)
———
Check out my other post for where I'm making my own map.
Relevant Imgur albums: maps, landscapes, Fright Zone, the Spire (season 5)
submitted by JavaRogers to PrincessesOfPower

9

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
Quinnipiac University 9-3 Florida 48 45
Quinnipiac University 9-3 Pennsylvania 52 44
Monmouth University 9-3 North Carolina 48 46
Monmouth University 9-3 North Carolina 47 45
Monmouth University 9-3 North Carolina 48 46
Rasmussen Reports 9-3 Pennsylvania 47 48
Harper Polling 9-3 Minnesota 48 45
USC Dornsife 9-3 National 50 42
USC Dornsife 9-3 National 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 53 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 52 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 40
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 40
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 46
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 51 41
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 40
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 46
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 42
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 49 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 43
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 48 44
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Morning Consult 9-2 Wisconsin 47 45
Fox News 9-2 Wisconsin 49 41
Fox News 9-2 North Carolina 49 45
Fox News 9-2 Wisconsin 50 42
Fox News 9-2 North Carolina 50 46
Fox News 9-2 Arizona 49 40
Fox News 9-2 Arizona 49 39
Ipsos 9-2 National 43 38
SSRS 9-2 National 51 43
Harris Insights & Analytics 9-2 National 46 40
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-2 National 50 43
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 44
Morning Consult 9-2 National 52 42
Morning Consult 9-2 National 51 43
Quinnipiac University 9-2 National 52 42
Qriously 9-2 National 46 41
Opinium 9-2 Florida 50 43
Opinium 9-2 Wisconsin 53 39
IBD 9-2 National 49 41
YouGov 9-2 National 51 40
Rasmussen Reports 9-2 National 48 45
Monmouth University 9-2 Pennsylvania 49 46
Monmouth University 9-2 Pennsylvania 49 45
Monmouth University 9-2 Pennsylvania 48 47
Suffolk University 9-2 National 46 41
Ipsos 9-2 National 47 40
USC Dornsife 9-2 National 51 42
USC Dornsife 9-2 National 51 41
Opinium 9-2 National 53 39
Suffolk University 9-2 National 49 43
Selzer & Co. 9-2 National 49 41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 9-1 National 49 40
Landmark Communications 9-1 Georgia 40 47
East Carolina University 9-1 North Carolina 46 48
Public Policy Polling 9-1 Michigan 48 44
Expedition Strategies 9-1 Montana 44 48
University of Nevada, Las Vegas 9-1 Nevada 44 38
Morning Consult 9-1 National 52 43
Morning Consult 9-1 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-1 Texas 47 48
Morning Consult 9-1 Florida 49 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Pennsylvania 49 45
Morning Consult 9-1 National 51 43
Morning Consult 9-1 North Carolina 49 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Ohio 45 50
Morning Consult 9-1 Minnesota 50 43
Morning Consult 9-1 Florida 50 45
Morning Consult 9-1 Georgia 49 46
Morning Consult 9-1 Michigan 50 44
Morning Consult 9-1 Georgia 46 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Colorado 51 41
Morning Consult 9-1 Wisconsin 52 43
Morning Consult 9-1 Michigan 52 42
Morning Consult 9-1 Arizona 52 42
Morning Consult 9-1 Colorado 51 41
Morning Consult 9-1 Texas 46 47
Morning Consult 9-1 Minnesota 50 42
Morning Consult 9-1 Ohio 45 49
Morning Consult 9-1 North Carolina 49 46
Morning Consult 9-1 Pennsylvania 50 44
Morning Consult 9-1 Arizona 45 47
USC Dornsife 9-1 National 51 41
USC Dornsife 9-1 National 51 41
Léger 9-1 National 49 42
AtlasIntel 9-1 National 49 46
Emerson College 8-31 National 51 48
RMG Research 8-31 National 48 44
Global Strategy Group 8-31 Pennsylvania 53 43
Global Strategy Group 8-31 Pennsylvania 50 42
Public Policy Polling 8-31 Georgia 47 46
Harris Insights & Analytics 8-31 National 47 38
GQR Research (GQRR) 8-31 Pennsylvania 52 43
Trafalgar Group 8-31 Missouri 41 51
USC Dornsife 8-31 National 53 40
USC Dornsife 8-31 National 52 40
John Zogby Strategies 8-30 National 45 42
John Zogby Strategies 8-30 National 48 42
USC Dornsife 8-30 National 54 39
USC Dornsife 8-30 National 53 39

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
  • Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
  • Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
  • Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
  • Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
  • RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
  • Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
  • FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
  • Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
  • JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
  • The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
  • Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
  • Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
  • Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by TheUnknownStitcher to politics