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stockAday: When will Under Armour's underbelly harden? $UA

Key Stats for Under Armour Inc

Given we wrote on Nike last week, feels a cheat to cover $UA, but heck I don't make the choices, Redditors voted for it!
Plus it's fair to say, I'm scared to look at it... 66 times forward earnings!
Ticker UA
Sector Other Apparel & Accessories
Latest price $38.49
Value $15,713M
Daily vol $136M
Date 05 October 2016

Useful Links

Description

Under Armour sells branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. Brands include: UNDER ARMOUR®, HEATGEAR®, COLDGEAR®, and ALLSEASONGEAR®. Its digital fitness offerings include MapMyFitness, MyFitnessPal, and Endomondo.
In 2015, sales of apparel, footwear and accessories represented 71%, 17% and 9% of net revenues, respectively. Licensing arrangements, primarily for the sale of our products, and revenue from our Connected Fitness business represented the remaining 3% of net revenues.

Recent financials

The financials sort of say it all!
Metric 2015A 2014A 2013A 2012A 2011A
Revenue $4.0bn $3.1bn $2.3bn $1.8bn $1.5bn
EPS $1.05 $0.95 $0.75 $0.61 $0.46
But in management's words
Our net revenues grew to $3,963.3 million in 2015 from $1,472.7 million in 2011. We believe that our growth in net revenues has been driven by a growing interest in performance products and the strength of the Under Armour brand in the marketplace. We plan to continue to increase our net revenues over the long term by increased sales of our apparel, footwear and accessories, expansion of our wholesale distribution sales channel, growth in our direct to consumer sales channel and expansion in international markets and engaging with consumers through our Connected Fitness business.
Living in the UK, over 40, and rubbish at sport, I just don't know this brand. So I don't understand what's driving it. But whatever it is, it's powerful!
So let's dig deeper. Where's the growth?
Metric 2015A 2014A Growth
Apparel $2,801m $2,292m $510m
Footwear $678m $431m $247m
Accessories $347m $275m $71m
License $84m $67m $17m
Connected Fitness $53m $19m $34m
So of the $880m growth in sales, Apparel was the key... though all the other divisions clocked up impressive growth too.
Then what's the international perspective?
Our operating segments include North America; Latin America; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (“EMEA”); Asia-Pacific; and Connected Fitness. Due to the insignificance of the Latin America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific operating segments, they have been combined into International for disclosure purposes.
Metric 2015A 2014A 2013A
North America $3,456m $2,796m $2,194m
International $454m $269m $137m
Connected $53m $19m $1m
Again looking at the $880m of growth, $660m came from the US.

Competition

From their Annual Return:
The market for performance apparel, footwear and accessories is highly competitive and includes many new competitors as well as increased competition from established companies expanding their production and marketing of performance products.
In particular they highlight Nike and Adidas. And when it comes to their stock price they suggest investors benchmark them versus S&P 500 Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
The comparison is not flattering on the margin or returns front. Is that a concern, well, no! With topline growth there's no reason to not tolerate a lower margin. they are investing in growth.
Companies Latest Sales Operating Profit Return on Equity
Under Armour Inc $4,423M 12% 15%
Nike Inc $33,023M 15% 31%
VF Corp $12,236M 16% 24%
Coach Inc $4,492M 17% 18%
Ralph Lauren Corp $7,339M 14% 8%
Lululemon Athletica inc. $2,194M 20% 24%
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd $4,714M 28% 42%
An aside: They are forecasting an annual tax rate of 36.5%. Twice Nike's! Someone's not been doing any tax optimisation, have they?

Cash / Debt?

Under Armour Inc has $894M of net debt. That is 1.7x it's latest operating profit. Seems a little high for the business they are in. But it's not troublesome.

Wall Street thinks?

The professionals on Wall Street have a $48.70 for Under Armour Inc and their recommendation to clients is Buy. That implies an upside of 27% to their target. Which makes me sit up!

Valuation

Really? a 27% upside when the stocks already on 66 times earnings? To use the Goldmans euphemism, this stock needs to "grow into its valuation".
View Peers Valuation Forecast PE Long-term Growth Dividend Yield FCF Yield
UA $15,713M 66x 24% 0% 3%
NKE $87,486M 22x 13% 1% 5%
VFC $23,304M 18x 9% 3% 9%
COH $10,307M 17x 12% 4% 10%
RL $8,250M 18x 5% 2% 9%
LULU.O $8,139M 28x 16% 0% 4%
KORS.K $8,003M 10x 4% 0% 12%

Dividends

Under Armour Inc is not forecast to pay a dividend this year.

Governance

There are A and B shares, with the founder Kevin Plank having the B shares with 10 votes to every 1 vote for an A share. :( Though if you look at Nike, there's a similar structure! A flag for sure, though not a red one.

Catalysts

In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by -3% that compares with a change in the earnings forecasts of 2%. So no major changes there.
That's against the following backdrop at the 6 months results:
  • Revenues increased 29% to $2.05B
  • North America up 24% to $1.71B
  • International up 62% to $299.5M
  • Connected Fitness up 91% to $42M
So the machine keeps pumping! At the top line.
For example, on the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers they are projecting sales of $4.925 billion for the year. That would be a growth of over $900m in the year...an acceleration versus last year. Now that's remarkable. The sort of thing you only see at tech companies ;)
Though, it seems that this ex-star stock has hit the rocks below the revenue line. Margins came under pressure in 2015. Again in the first half of 2016. And on the call, they said they are expecting continued margin pressure, which of course is weighing on the stock.
Do you buy into the topline story? Will it be like an Amazon or Netflix, where the cashflow eventually comes through? I don't see any reason to think otherwise, but in the meantime... will the stock see any love. I fear not.
At least not until the hot money's truly capitulated. Mean, eh?
View the archive of Stock a Day posts at its subreddit stockaday.
And please send us suggestions on what you'd like us to research next!
If you'd like to join the writing team please get in touch. Our writing template is available here if you'd like to use it to pen your own stockAday type posts :).
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. Note: I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
submitted by shane_stockflare to investing

stockAday: Is WWE a "bathroom break" or "on gas"? ;) $WWE

Key Stats for World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc.

Thanks u/semipalmated_plover for putting $WWE on the Card. I wonder... is it a C-Show or a Monster? ;)
aside: Wrestling lingo available here.
Ticker WWE
Sector Other Entertainment Production
Latest price $20.96
Value $1,601M
Daily vol $6M
Date 07 September 2016
NB: only $6m of the stock is traded daily, so it's not the most liquid stock we've ever written about.

Useful Links

Description

World Wrestling Entertainment is a media and entertainment company. The Company is engaged in the production and distribution of content through various channels, including its WWE Network, television rights agreements, pay-per-view event programming, live events, feature films, licensing of various WWE themed products, and the sale of consumer products featuring its brands.
If you are male and over 5 years old, you don't need a description, do you. Though, you make be insulted that I call it a media company and not a sport. :)

Recent financials

So sales have been growing nicely, but earnings are rocky to put it kindly and the stock's paying more in dividends every year that it's earning?
How does that work?
Metric 2015A 2014A 2013A 2012A 2011A
Revenue $659m $543m $508m $484m $484m
EPS $0.32 -$0.40 $0.04 $0.42 $0.33
DPS $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.60

Competition

From their annual
While we believe that we have a loyal fan base, the entertainment industry is highly competitive and subject to fluctuations in popularity, which are not easy to predict. For our live, television, WWE Network, pay-per-view and movie audiences, we face competition from professional and college sports, other live, filmed, televised and streamed entertainment, and other leisure activities. We compete with entertainment companies, professional and college sports leagues and other makers of branded apparel and merchandise. We will face increased competition from websites and mobile and other internet connected apps delivering paid and free content, as streamed media offerings continue to expand.
So given it's entertainment, it's competing for the same dollars as any other type of entertainment. But as history shows, they've done a pretty good job protecting their brand and keeping the audience loyal.
Talking a look at "peers" from the production and broadcasting industries, their margins are healthy and the returns are double-digit. So no red flag here.
Companies Latest Sales Operating Profit Return on Equity
World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. $703M 17% 11%
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. $7,747M 8% -ve
Madison Square Garden Co $1,115M 4% -ve
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. $2,086M 0% 6%
Eros International plc $274M 61% 1%
Starz $1,666M 69% 99%
Discovery Communications Inc. $6,472M 62% 14%
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc $3,003M 16% 7%
Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. $3,338M 44% 47%
And the balance sheet looks line with $49M of net cash. That is the equivalent of 3% of the market value of $WWE.

Wall Street thinks?

The professionals on Wall Street have a $22.39 for World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. and their recommendation to clients is Buy. That implies an upside of 7% to their target.

Valuation

But, even though the franchise and financials are rosy, it's a little worrying to see the stock on 44x earnings. Sure the growth's been good. But how is it doing to grow into that valuation? Where's the growth going to come from? Is international finally going to take off?
View Peers Valuation Forecast PE Long-term Growth Dividend Yield FCF Yield
WWE $1,601M 44x 20% 2% 8%
LYV $5,455M -ve N/A 0% 8%
MSG $4,305M 2843x 5% 0% 1%
LGF $2,680M 54x 33% 2% 3%
EROS.K $949M 27x N/A 0% 15%
STRZA.O $3,020M 13x 3% 0% 31%
DISCA.O $9,800M 13x 16% 0% 18%
AMC $2,975M 31x 16% 3% 14%
SNI.O $8,153M 12x 11% 2% 15%

Dividends

World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. is forecast to pay a dividend of $0.48 per share, compared with a historic dividend of $0.48 per share. That is a 0% growth. The forecast dividend of $0.48 compares to a forecast EPS of $0.48. Phew... so this year earnings are expected to catch up.

Catalysts

In the last 3 months the stock price has moved by 16% that compares with a change in the earnings forecasts of 4%. With sales up 13% in the first half of 2016.
Here's a link to the management team's latest call with Wall Street brokers.
Over the second-half of '16 we anticipate year-over-year adjusted growth in profits from continued revenue growth and more favorable year-over-year comparisons in our fixed cost base. We anticipate such growth will accelerate in the fourth quarter.
So the future is bright in management's eyes!
View the archive of Stock a Day posts at its subreddit stockaday.
And please send us suggestions on what you'd like us to research next!
If you'd like to join the writing team please get in touch. Our writing template is available here if you'd like to use it to pen your own stockAday type posts :).
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned. However I may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
Author notes: u/shane_stockflare works at a financial website, Stockflare, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Previously he worked at Credit Suisse, where he was an equity research analyst covering tech stocks and at Citigroup where he was an investment banker.
submitted by shane_stockflare to investing