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I have been following Purple for the last few months after entering a long position. Coming out of the Q2 results, the stock has sold off despite the ramping performance on profitability and share gain from TPX, SNBR, CSPR, and others.
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https://www.scribd.com/document/475027501/Purple-Innovation-Research-9-6-20
As the materials show, I believe the story is underappreciated and some near term, non-value oriented factors have led to the stock being undervalued and poised for meaningful upside. I pulled this together as there are so many factors at play and hard to really lay it out clearly in a reddit post.
My prior posts on PRPL here (don't believe I cross-posted to here before):
https://www.reddit.com/investing/comments/i9s5r7/purple_redux_cash_is_king_part_ii_carnage_of_the/
https://www.reddit.com/investing/comments/hi3m1y/prpl_cash_is_king_significant_upside/
I do have a long position, primarily through LEAPs, in PRPL. I also own a Purple Queen Hybrid Premier "4 Mattress.
submitted by SanitysLastRefuge to stocks

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 19, 2020)

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. Where the same poll applied different screening methodologies (All Adults, Registered Voters, Likely Voters), the result is shown as the most restrictive (Likely Voters > Registered Voters > All Adults). This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Poll Date Type Biden Trump
Fox News 7-19 National 49 41
ABC News/The Washington Post 7-19 National 54 44
Gravis Marketing 7-18 South Carolina 46 50
Public Policy Polling 7-18 Michigan 51 44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 7-16 Kentucky 41 53
OH Predictive Insights 7-16 Arizona 49 44
Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape 7-17 National 49 41
Alaska Survey Research 7-17 Alaska 48 49
Monmouth University 7-15 Pennsylvania 51 44
NBC News 7-15 National 51 40
Ipsos 7-15 National 47 37
Quinnipiac University 7-15 National 52 37
YouGov 7-15 National 47 39
Rasmussen Reports 7-15 National 47 44
Monmouth University 7-15 Pennsylvania 52 42
YouGov 7-15 National 49 40
Morning Consult 7-15 National 47 39
Change Research 7-15 Michigan 48 42
Change Research 7-15 Wisconsin 48 42
Change Research 7-15 Pennsylvania 50 42
Change Research 7-15 North Carolina 47 46
Change Research 7-15 Florida 50 43
Change Research 7-15 Arizona 51 45
Change Research 7-15 National 51 41
Gravis Marketing 7-14 Texas 44 46
Gravis Marketing 7-14 Florida 53 43
Civiqs 7-14 Montana 45 49
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 7-13 National 48 39
RMG Research 7-13 National 46 39
YouGov 7-13 Missouri 42 49
Public Policy Polling 7-13 Montana 42 51
GQR Research (GQRR) 7-13 Nebraska CD-2 51 44
John Zogby Strategies 7-12 National 49 42
Gravis Marketing 7-12 Georgia 45 48
YouGov 7-12 Arizona 46 46
YouGov 7-12 Florida 48 42
YouGov 7-12 Texas 45 46
University of Texas at Tyler 7-12 Texas 48 43
GBAO 7-10 North Carolina 48 46
GBAO 7-10 Arizona 47 46
GBAO 7-10 Iowa 45 48
Morning Consult 7-10 National 48 39
Auburn University at Montgomery 7-10 Alabama 40 55
Data for Progress 7-10 National 51 41
Public Policy Polling 7-9 North Carolina 50 46
Public Policy Polling 7-9 Alaska 45 48
Harris Insights & Analytics 7-8 National 43 39
Rasmussen Reports 7-8 National 50 40
Ipsos 7-8 National 43 37
Opinium 7-8 National 52 40
Research Co. 7-8 National 49 40
YouGov 7-8 National 49 40
PureSpectrum 7-8 National 47 37
Public Policy Polling 7-7 National 53 42
Trafalgar Group 7-6 Pennsylvania 48 42
Public Policy Polling 7-6 Maine 53 42
Trafalgar Group 7-3 Florida 45 45
YouGov 7-2 National 45 40
Monmouth University 7-2 National 53 41
YouGov 7-2 Texas 44 48
Public Policy Polling 7-2 Texas 48 46
University of Montana 7-1 Montana 37 52
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 7-1 National 55 41
Gravis Marketing 7-1 Arizona 45 49
Public Policy Polling 7-1 Michigan 50 44
Ipsos 7-1 National 46 38
Harris Insights & Analytics 7-1 National 56 44
Public Policy Polling 7-1 Colorado 56 39
IBD 7-1 National 48 40
Data Orbital 7-1 Arizona 47 45
YouGov 7-1 National 49 40
Morning Consult 7-1 National 47 40
Change Research 7-1 National 49 41
Change Research 7-1 Arizona 51 44
Change Research 7-1 Florida 50 45
Change Research 7-1 Michigan 48 43
Change Research 7-1 North Carolina 51 44
Change Research 7-1 Pennsylvania 50 44
Change Research 7-1 Wisconsin 51 43
East Carolina University 6-30 North Carolina 45 43
Suffolk University 6-30 National 53 41
Pew Research Center 6-30 National 54 44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 6-30 Missouri 48 46
Siena College 6-30 New York 57 32

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
  • Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
  • Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
  • Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
  • Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
  • RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
  • Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
  • FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet, but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
  • Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
  • JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
  • The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
  • Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
  • Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
  • Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
submitted by Isentrope to politics